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柬埔寨一句狠话化解边境危机：中国可否借鉴？

insipid-fauna 8分 10天前

Problem is going through Bangaldesh to NE India means going across the Jamuna river， and the nearest bridge crossing is ~250 km south of the trijunction area. India would need to secure safe passage through Bangladesh by political means， forcing through Bangladesh a la Blitzkreig style would destroy any goodwill India has with the US (unless China launched an unwarranted offensive). The Siliguri Corridor appears to be a natural chokepoint， otherwise I'm not sure why India is getting so worked up over Doklam.

The recent dispute over Doklam probably isn't part of some larger plan.

The Chinese rarely do anything in international affairs unless they have some greater plan. This would be a rare exception rather than the rule.

问题是通过班加尔德到印度东北部意味着穿过贾姆古河，最近的桥梁交叉点在三联区以南约250公里处。印度需要通过政治手段确保安全通过孟加拉国，强制通过孟加拉国，打闪电战将破坏印度和美国的友好关系（除非中国发动无端的攻势）。 西里古里走廊似乎是一个自然的咽喉，否则我不知道为什么印度在洞朗如此大动干戈。

除非有更大的计划，中国人很少在国际事务中做任何事情。这将是一个罕见的例外，而不是惯例。

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