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终极预测：特朗普和拜登，谁会赢得美国大选？

来源：经济学人双语精读

2020-10-29 14:07:05

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当然，除了比忽悠，还得拼钱，毕竟竞选是个烧钱的活动，谁的钱多，谁越有可能忽悠到最后。就像谈恋爱，他虽然不会甜言蜜语，但家里有钱，也能增添亿点个人魅力。

二、选举人团制度是怎么一回事？

美国总统并不是由选民直接选举产生，而是由选举人团选举产生。美国一共有538张选举人票（electoral college votes），拿到一半以上（即≥270）者获胜。

那如何赢得选举人票呢？

选举人票是以州为单位的，每个州票数不同，最多的是加利福尼亚州，55张；最少的有蒙大拿州，3张。如果候选人能在某个州获得相对多数的普选票(popular votes，即选民投票)，那便可得到该州的全部选举人票(electoral college votes)。即“赢者通吃”（缅因州和内布拉斯加州除外）。

举个例子，佛罗里达有29张选举人票，假设特朗普得到选民投票只比拜登多1张，也能获得全部的29张选举人票；科罗拉州有9张选举人票，假设拜登得到的选民投票比特朗普多1000张，也只能拿走9张选举人票。

三、《经济学人》如何介绍美国的选举人团制度？

了解完背景之后，我们再来看《经济学人》的介绍：

①AMERICA elects its president through the electoral college， rather than directly on the results of the popular vote. ②The 50 states and Washington， DC are allocated 538 electoral-college votes (ECVs). ③The number of votes granted to each state depends on its representation in the Senate and House of Representatives. ④Every state has two senators and at least one representative， so even sparsely populated states， such as Montana， are guaranteed three votes. ⑤Nearly every state awards its entire slate of ECVs to whomever wins the popular vote in that state (only Maine and Nebraska allow for their ECVs to be split among candidates). ⑥To win the presidency a candidate must secure a simple majority of 270 votes.